October 29, 2012: Sandy Coming Ashore

5 PM UPDATE:  SANDY MAKING LANDFALL, 90 MPH, EXTREME SOUTHERN N.J., MOVING RAPIDLY NW.

5 PM Track and Intensity Forecast:

National Hurricane Center

Forecast positions and max wind speeds:

5 pm Monday 90 mph
2 am Tuesday 75 mph York, PA
2 pm Tuesday 60 mph Altoona, PA

Check out the NWS warning coverage for the Mid Atlantic and Northeast - I am amazed to see both a hurricane warning and a blizzard waring, from the same storm, across a distance of only a few hundred miles!

NWS

4 pm, an amazing pressure gradient:

5 PM Heavy Rain and Snow:

5 pm radar composite, showing heavy rain bands and the western eye wall along the Delaware coastline.  Yes, that blue zone over the Appalachians is a blizzard!  What is this thing...a snowcane?  Blizzardcane?  White hurricane?

WeatherTAP

5 PM Wind Forecast

As of 5 pm, sustained winds are over 30 mph area-wide, with gusts into the mid-upper 60 mph range are being reported in the DC-Baltimore region.  The core of highest winds is still to come, tonight, at the point of closest approach of vortex near York, PA (due north of Baltimore) approximately 2 am Tuesday morning.

***From Previous Post Today***
High Wind Forecast:

We are still on track for a prolonged period of high, sustained winds, from the west, not shifting around to south winds until Wednesday.   As Sandy approaches the coast today, the winds will rapidly ramp up in intensity and gustiness.

I am introducing a new wind prediction product here, courtesy of Quantum Weather and my colleague Professor Robert Pasken (based in St. Louis, MO).   For several years Quantum has produced a highly sophisticated regional forecast model, designed to help area utilities plan for worst-case weather scenarios.   The max sustained wind plots, generated for the greater Baltimore region, show a significant ramp-up in high winds (> 45 mph sustained) after 11 AM this morning expanding westward across the region (4 pm), with widespread 50-55 mph sustained winds by 8 pm:

8 AM LOCAL

2 PM LOCAL

 

8 PM LOCAL

The wind model takes into account the detailed terrain and topography of the Bay.  Focus on the bottom panel, at 8 pm tonite, with an intense west wind sweeping across the entire region.  The areas of greatest wind damage potential (red colors) become concentrated (1) along the high terrain (Catoctin Mountains) west of Baltimore, and off the western shore of the Bay, southeast of Baltimore.   You can literally see streaks or corridors of high wind that accelerate over the Bay's waters and then impinge along southern Maryland.  The greater Baltimore region lies in a bit of a "wind depression" between mountain- and Bay-enhanced regions.