In year’s past, I have blogged about the lessons learned
from the 1942 Palm Sunday (March 29) snowstorm, which buried Baltimore in 22
inches of heavy, wet snow.
It was outright crippling in terms of downed trees, broken utilities and
clogged transportation arteries. There was a real “shock and awe” factor with
this one – as the following pictures attest:
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| Library of Congress |
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| Library of Congress |
So, even though this is an extreme “outlier” event, there is
precedent; it could happen
again. Today, the
computer models continue to advertise a significant coastal low or Nor’easter
in the March 25-26 timeframe.
This, thanks to an unusually cold late-March air mass coming down from
Canada. When air this
cold moves along the warm Atlantic’s Gulf Stream the Polar Front becomes prime
breeding ground for a coastal storm.
With the possible storm still about a week out, there
continues to be a lot of uncertainty in the model projections…in terms of storm
location, intensity, track and manner in which it taps the cold
air. Odds are against a major snow storm during early
spring, due to high Sun angle and warmer air masses to our south and east.
Also, the western Atlantic water is very warm, and if this air invades
the D.C. – Baltimore region (in the lowest few thousand feet), it means a rainy day,
not snow.
At this point, I give equal probability to all of the
following options: All rain, mix
of rain and snow, a big snow, nothing at all – which means I have about zero
confidence in what may happen seven days from now.
Stay tuned, and as usual, this next “event” will probably
have everyone on edge as the weekend draws near.
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