Tuesday, August 23, 2011

A Further Jog Eastward For Irene

August 22, 2011:  The 5 pm Hurricane Center official forecast track nudges the storm further east.  Brief landfall may be expected along the N.C. Outer Banks early Sunday morning. 

Always bear in mind the size of typical errors in a forecast that is 4-5 days out, and this track hinges on a large-scale flow pattern that has yet to fully materialize i.e. a weakness in the subtropical ridge and a trough approaching the east coast of the U.S.  Don't be surprised to see the official track wobble west-east over the next several days.

Much can still change, but the trend of an eastward shift in track continues.  Even as the track shifts further east, the storm circulation is large and will potentially spread its weather impacts well inland.

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