Tuesday, November 6, 2012

November 6, 2012, 4 pm: Backside of Nor'Easter to Clip Baltimore Region

Now less than 24 hours from the impacts, the forecast models are in good agreement that the center of this Nor'easter storm will track 200-300 miles east of Baltimore, putting us on the back edge of the precipitation shield and wind field.   The storm is forming now off the Georgia coast.  It will track N-NE over the Atlantic tomorrow, intensify tomorrow night, then slowly start to weaken on Thursday evening:

Model Forecast Positions - Nor'Easter Track, NWS
Inland, an unseasonably chilly air mass will be in place, and the storm's circulation may pull in even colder air from the north on Wednesday.   Thus, the "S word" (snow!) is added to the list of our potential impacts.

Overall, given the trend in the models, this should be a low-impact event lasting about 24 hours for the Baltimore region.

Specific impacts:

1.  Precipitation Amount:  Precip will fall intermittently from Wednesday evening into Thursday morning.  Amounts will be light i.e. just a couple tenths of an inch:

By far, the lion's share of rain is to our east, over the water.

2.  Precipitation Type:  A mix of rain and snow...ranging from a trace near D.C. to about an 1" north and east of Baltimore:


3.  Winds:  Strongest over the Atlantic and coastal zone - generally from the N-NW gusting to 20-30 mph, peaking on Thursday morning, and highest along the Bay:


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