Wednesday, April 24, 2013

April 24, 2013: Showers, Tstorms Coming This Evening

An approaching cold front will sweep through the cities this evening.  A narrow band of showers and tstorms has developed ahead of the front, and is presently moving across the Appalachians.  The line will move through the cities b/t 8-10 PM tonight.   Expect showers, gusty winds and lightning. 

High-resolution forecast models and radar trends suggest that this activity may be more of a threat north of the Mason Dixon Line.   The strongest storms are located over central-southern PA, with isolated severe thunderstorm warnings there.    The Storm Prediction Center expressed a 40% probability that a Severe Thunderstorm Watch would be needed this evening, encompassing PA and north-central MD, as far south as Baltimore, Howard and Carroll Counties.  However, as of 5 pm, no watch has been issued.  Conditions (instability, wind shear) are marginal for sustained or widespread severe tstorms.

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