Sunday, October 28, 2012

October 28, 2012: Staying The Course

The storm remains at 75 mph intensity.  The inner core region is holding onto its tropical characteristics including intense thunderstorms and a partial eyewall.   Limited additional intensification to 80 mph is possible overnight and tomorrow morning.  The storm will make landfall in southern NJ and weaken to 70 mph over Wilmington, DE.  The vortex will track NW across southern PA, weakening to 50 mph in the vicinity of Harrisburg, PA:

National Hurricane Center
The cold front has pushed east of our region, and will be a player during the continued transition of this hurricane into an extratropical storm:

As I discussed earlier, this front is serving to focus a heavy rain band along the Delmarva coast:

One aspect I neglected to mention earlier, regarding wind damage to trees:   Many tree crowns have shed their leaves, and once the winds pick up on Monday, additional defoliation will occur.  Leaves  act as tiny "sails" which catch the wind and greatly magnify the wind stress exerted on tree limbs.   This may mitigate some of the tree failure during the high wind period.

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