Sunday, October 28, 2012

October 28, 2012: Time To Make Final Preparations

1.  Track:  The models continue to converge on a point of landfall along the South Jersey shore...but please note there continues to be generous uncertainty:

National Hurricane Center
2.  Intensity:  The storm has held together overnight, as a hybrid (combined tropical-extratropical) system rated overall as Cat 1 (75 mph sustained winds).  A core of thunderstorms continues to feed energy into the center.   The storm may get an energy boost as it passes a narrow strip of warm (80 F) ocean water later today.   North of this region, off New Jersey, the water is much cooler, which argues for the storm weakening somewhat prior to landfall.  However, bear in mind that the jet stream will also continue its interaction with this storm, feeding its own energy into the system.  Thus, the storm's surface winds may show very little weakening prior to landfall.

3.  Weather Impacts.  The basic principles I discussed in yesterday's post (October 27) still apply.  Here are the updated rain accumulation and wind gust maps from this morning, provided by the National Weather Service:

The wind gust forecasts indicate strong winds ramping up early Monday morning, peaking Monday night into Tuesday morning.   High Wind Warnings go into effect area-wide Monday morning, for sustained winds up to 40-50 mph and gusts to 60 mph.   Expect high winds for a sustained period, 18+ hours. 

This blog will be updated later today.

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