***10 PM UPDATE***
See the latest NWS snow accumulation map for our region, below, through 8 pm Monday night.
My forecast is still on track, based on all the reasons I gave in my blog yesterday (March 22).
Here are some accumulation numbers.
First - the probability, according to the NOAA Weather Prediction Center, that D.C.-Baltimore will see > 4" of snow is about 30%. There is zero probability that the Metro region would see at least 8". The probability of at least 4" is much higher in the elevated terrain to our west and north:
|Probability of at least 4" of snow. Blue = 10%, green = 40%, red = 70%.|