Monday, March 4, 2013

March 4, 2013 9 AM Major Winter Storm Coming

Quick Morning Update:

1.   Winter Storm Watch:  Posted for the entire Metro region;
2.   Timing:  Rain/Snow early Wed AM, becoming snow, moderate to heavy at times during day,
      tapering Wed evening
3.   Accumulation:  Several inches, perhaps 6"+ but with a large gradient from NE to SW across
      central Maryland and NOVA;  bulls eye appears to be in the Appalachians to our SW (12"+);
      DC may pick up quite a bit more than Baltimore
4.   Type of snow:   This will follow the same gradient as the accumulation:  Heavy, wet snow
      (7:1) to the SW, fluffier farther NE (10:1)
5.   Other impacts:  Gusty winds, to 30-35 mph, with highest gusts in mountains
6.   Likelihood of power outages:  Greatest to the SW, where snow is wettest and gusts are strongest;
      however, folks in the metro region should be prepared

Tricky Aspects To This Forecast:

1.   Storm track:   Slightly further south reduces amounts in the metro;  slightly further north
      increases the amounts;
2.   Storm intensification:  This draws in colder air on the west side, increasing snow rates;  this
      also draws in more warm ocean air on the north side, increasing likelihood of sleet/rain mixing
      in with snow - there will be issues related to exact location of rain/snow line;
3.   Heavy snow band:  Where this sets up determines location of heavy snow i.e. 2"+/hr lasting
      several hours, leading to very localized heavy accumulation;  thundersnow possible in this band

Next Blog Update:  3:30 PM Today

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